The prevalence of the phrase in media coverage has tended to crest along with stocks this year, as the chart below shows. In late July, as now, investors were rushing to embrace the potential for a soft economic landing scenario that they had so recently found farfetched. The return to the heights of July 2023 invites a compare-and-contrast exercise of conditions now versus then, to handicap whether the forces that triggered a 10% three-month correction have reassembled. July's heights Something will probably come along to challenge the happy setup and cool off a sizzling market. This is all to the good in terms of technical improvement and breadth expansion that send a friendlier macro message of firmer growth, falling inflation and sufficient liquidity. 14: The mega-cap tech leaders slouched a bit, and the laggard banks and small caps rose from the depths. The tape rotated rather than retrenched over that span, especially after the cooler-than-expected October consumer price index report on Nov. But before the late-week jump, the S & P 500 had simply hovered in place for 10 trading days to digest a three-week surge - the most benign possible way to consolidate a double-digit ramp. In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally, and asked, "Enough for now? It's the question to consider at moments like these, with the stock indexes running hot and investor attitudes swinging from decidedly downbeat to downright optimistic over a matter of months." In the current case, that swing has occurred over a mere five weeks - all of them positive ones for the S & P 500 - for an aggregate 11.6% gain, its best run over a five-week span since the week ended exactly three years ago.SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Financial conditions were easing and investors' collective optimism and risk posture were stretching toward 18-month highs. The furious recovery rally that began in late October has now carried the S & P 500 almost exactly to the prior closing high of the year just under 4,600, set in late July. On Wall Street this year, it's looking a lot like July in December. "Christmas in July" is an old retail promotional gimmick. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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